Three Ways to Decide Better

Updated:10 Sep, 2026

From Annie Duke, Thinking in Bets; Adam Grant, Think Again; Hans Rosling, Factfulness

The prompt

I want help making a decision I'm currently stuck on, using a few specific
techniques for getting around my own self-serving bias.

The techniques, drawn from Annie Duke's Thinking in Bets, Adam Grant's Think
Again, and Hans Rosling's Factfulness:

- Self-serving bias stops us learning from our mistakes: we win because we're
  skilled, we lose because we were unlucky.
- Build a trusted ring of friends committed to telling each other the truth.
- Write your predictions down before you know the outcome.
- Ask what would prove you wrong, before you know the outcome.
- Think of three possible outcomes instead of all-or-nothing, and assign each
  one a probability — least likely, somewhat likely, most likely.

Start by asking me what decision I'm wrestling with. Then walk me through the
techniques one at a time, in that order. Make me actually write the prediction
down. Make me name what would prove me wrong before I've seen how it turns out.

When I give you two outcomes, ask for a third. I default to black-and-white
thinking and I need to be caught doing it.

Send it straight to…

Overview

We write a list of ideas and ask an AI like NotebookLM to turn it into a podcast. Then, instead of listening to podcasts, we grab the transcript and ask an AI to turn it back into a bullet list.

Let me save you some tokens. Here are the bullets.

The ideas

Self-serving bias can prevent us from learning from our mistakes.
There are three ways you can help overcome self-serving bias and make better decisions.
First, build a trusted ring of friends committed to telling each other the truth.
Second, write your predictions down, before you know the outcome.
Third, ask what would prove you wrong, before you know the outcome.
And one final tip, from Factfulness: think of three possible outcomes instead of all-or-nothing ones, and assign each a probability — from least likely, to somewhat likely, to most likely.

As for me

I have to remind myself constantly to ask, “what else might happen?” so I don’t get stuck in black and white thinking.

Ask your AI

Take a decision you’re struggling with and ask: “What other outcomes are possible?”